Had the Electric Power Industry of Montenegro (EPCG) followed through with the feasibility studies for rooftop solar projects in Montenegro from 2021/2022 – studies it had already approved – the country’s power grid would now have an additional 185 MW of renewable energy capacity and 280 GWh of annual electricity production. This would have been the case between June 2022 and the end of 2024.
In this section, I will outline the expected outcomes of EPCG’s 2020 decision to invest in solar energy by developing rooftop solar power plants.
HOW IT BEGAN AND WHAT WAS EXPECTED
In July 2021, the new management at EPCG, inspired by the solar power plant already installed on the company’s headquarters in Nikšić – commissioned in 2020 under the previous management, decided to adopt a new business strategy: generate electricity where it’s consumed, and in the amounts that are needed.
A preliminary technical solution and feasibility study were conducted, and two projects totaling 100 MW (megawatts) were selected for implementation:
- Project SOLARI 3000+ and 500+, with a total capacity of 30 MW, consisting of 3,000 solar systems on residential rooftops and 500 on buildings owned by legal entities, is expected to generate 46.7 GWh annually. It is estimated to cost €30 million (referred to as the first project).
- Project SOLARI 5000+ with a total capacity of 70 MW, expected to generate 105 GWh annually, with an estimated cost of €70 million (referred to as the second project).
Upon completion of these projects, the implementation of Project Solari 10,000+ was expected to begin. This would involve 10,000 solar systems on residential rooftops, totaling 85 MW, with an estimated annual production of 110.5 GWh, valued at €90 million (referred to as the third project).
Altogether, EPCG planned to build 185 MW of solar power plants on residential rooftops across Montenegro starting in mid-2022. This would have resulted in an expected annual electricity production of about 270 million kWh (18% of the average output from the Pljevlja thermal power plant), helping to address the energy challenges anticipated due to the planned multi-month shutdown of the Pljevlja plant in the coming years.
INITIAL ASSUMPTIONS
EPCG conducted feasibility studies, preliminary measurements, and cost estimates for the projects. The studies found that the solar projects would be profitable if one installer could mount a 1 kW solar panel in a single workday. The author also considered that due to weather conditions and holidays, one of the five working days each week would typically be unproductive.
Assuming the contractor employed 500 workers, with 84% (or 420 installers) working as panel installers, the study concluded that the time required to complete both projects, totaling 100 MW, would be 16 months (5 months for the 30 MW project and 11 months for the 70 MW project).
START OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION AND EXPECTED RESULTS
The solar projects officially began on June 23, 2022. According to the feasibility studies approved by EPCG, both projects were expected to be completed in 16 months – one by December 2022 and the other by November 2023.
Since the assumption was that each megawatt (MW) of these systems would produce, on average, 1.5 GWh of electricity annually, the following was expected:
- In the second half of 2022, the first solar system was expected to deliver at least 22.5 million kWh (30/2 * 1.5) to the grid, with 45 million kWh in 2023, and 45 million kWh annually thereafter.
- In 2023, the second system was expected to deliver at least 52.5 million kWh (70/2 * 1.5) to the grid, with 105 million kWh in 2024 and each year thereafter.
With these expectations in place, the construction of Solari 1000+ (85 MW total) was planned to begin, and by 2024, it was expected to be 75% complete, increasing the system’s total production capacity by 64 MW and adding 96 GWh of electricity to the grid.
In the next section (3), we will compare the expected and actual results of the rooftop solar power plant projects.
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