Uncovering the Truth Behind Solar Power Production in Montenegro in 2024 (Part 3)

Written by Branko Kotri

In my first article, I addressed the topic outlined in the title so I won’t repeat everything here.

After reviewing the available documentation, I found that in 2024, the total production from solar power plants was 41.21 GWh—about 20.32 GWh, or roughly a third, less than what was reported in the Ministry’s Energy Balance for 2024. This discrepancy is a significant mistake on the Ministry's part, and I expect it to be corrected.

I also pointed out that the higher reported figures refer to production from solar plants installed on the rooftops of residential and commercial buildings. These plants have been under construction for nearly three years, specifically for the producers’ customers, as part of the SOLARI 3000+, 500+, and 5000+ projects. These projects are central to the issue with a combined capacity of 100 MW and an investment of 100 million euros.

In the second article, published yesterday on the Antena M portal, I discussed the expected outcomes based on the project assumptions and conditions outlined in the feasibility studies approved by EPCG AD, the main body responsible for implementing these projects.

These studies concluded that the projects would be profitable. My findings were as follows:

• By the second half of 2022, the Solari 3000+ and 500+ projects should have delivered at least 22.5 million kWh of electricity to the distribution system (calculated as 30/2 * 1.5), with 45 million kWh in 2023, and 45 million kWh in 2024. This would bring the total to 112.5 million kWh by the end of 2024.

• The Solari 5000+ project, launched in 2023, was expected to deliver at least 52.5 million kWh (calculated as 70/21.5) to the distribution system that year, and 105 million kWh in 2024 (calculated as 70/1.5), for a total of 157.5 million kWh by the end of 2024.

In total, the electricity delivered to the distribution system from both projects over 30 months (from July 2022 to December 2024) should have been 270 million kWh. Starting in 2025, the annual delivery would increase by 150 million kWh.

In evaluating the progress of these projects, I consider 2024 as the point at which the total capacity from both customer-producer projects reached 24.063 MW—24.1% of the expected total. The actual electricity production that year was 31.8 million kWh, which is 25.4% of the projected 150 million kWh.

Dear readers,

After this update, I have to share a few additional points regarding the issues discussed:

1. All the analyses from which I’ve drawn my conclusions are based on official documentation from relevant ministries, the Energy Regulatory Agency, and EPCG Group companies involved in this issue.

2. My analysis includes data on employee numbers: In the second half of 2022, there were 458 employees (410 installers); in 2023, 390 employees (328 installers); and in 2024, 429 employees (360 installers).

3. This analysis focuses only on the energy aspects of the project. Since the Revenue Department extended the deadline for submitting financial statements until April 18th, I will address the economic aspects once the necessary conditions are met.

4. I am open to engaging in constructive discussions with all interested parties and will gladly share the documentation that I used as the basis for my analysis.