Montenegro’s unrealistic EU optimism

For Antena M by: Miljan Vesovic 

Montenegro continues to be in the crosshairs of “Serbian” and “Russian World”. One of the main goals of Vucic and Putin in Montenegro is to derail Montenegro’s EU integration process.

The Government of Montenegro, on its part, does not stop with unabashed optimism about Montenegro’s prospects to join the EU. The same optimism, although more cautiously, is expressed by the European Commission. According to Montenegrin Government, the chapters will be closed at a rapid pace and Montenegro will be completely ready to join by 2026.

However, Serbia and Russia have many ways to ensure Montenegro never (or at least, not in the near future) joins the EU. These ways are at their disposal because they, through their proxies, control the Government, the parliamentary majority and the security sector. They will use that control to shape policies in ways that are unacceptable for EU and its member states. And the member states (it is important to remember) are those who make the final, political decision, if and when Montenegro will join.

For example, yesterday, the main pro-Russian and pro-Serbian party, coalition “For the Future of Montenegro” announced it would request the adoption of Foreign Agents Bill. The said bill, if adopted into law, will be the carbon – copy of laws introduced in Russia and Georgia. If adopted into law, the Foreign Agents Bill will, undoubtedly, signal the end of democracy in Montenegro. It goes basically without saying – also the end of any possibility for Montenegro to join the European Union.

Other members of the ruling coalition in Montenegro, as well as the opposition and the civil sector, criticized the bill and signaled (political parties) that they would not support it. Why are the pro-Russian and pro-Serbian parties requesting its adoption then? First rule of negotiations – start with maximalist requests, because at the end you will be satisfied with what you get, even if you don’t get everything.

How does that work here? (Pro-Russian/Pro-Serbian Parliament Speaker) Mandic and his cohorts will not get the Law on Foreign Agents. However, they can use that to blackmail the rest of parliamentary majority to support the “next best thing” – Law on Citizenship. The Prime Minister of Montenegro, Spajic, has already indicated that he is on board with the Law on Citizenship proposal. The goal of that proposal is to make it much easier to get Montenegrin citizenship.

 In practice, that means “importing” tens, even hundreds of thousands of citizens from Serbia and Republika Srpska. Handpicked by Vucic’s and Dodik’s security services, of course. Once they get the citizenship under new law, all these people will register to vote in Montenegro. That will ensure that pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties in Montenegro win every election with ease.

EU Commission has already requested maximum restraint and caution from Montenegro when it comes to tampering with citizenship laws. Moreover, if adopted, the Law on Citizenship, in all probability, will lead to serious destabilization to political and security situation in Montenegro. It is highly realistic to expect that the majority of Montenegrin citizens will not stand idly by and let their (our) country be handed to Vucic and Putin on a silver platter.

Vucic, however, does not care. Destabilization is exactly what he wants – it serves Putin’s purposes in the Balkans and it stops Montenegro from quickly joining EU. Mandic, Knezevic and the rest of pro-Serbian and pro-Russian politicians in Montenegro don’t care either – they have been given the task by their Belgrade and Moscow masters, and now they are setting out to fulfill that task.

Prime Minister Spajic and his newly minted “Europe Now/The Democrats” coalition either don’t care as well, or are unable to control and stop Mandic. Spajic is trying to position itself as the main champion of Montenegro’s European integration, and as the leader who managed to quicken the pace of chapters – closing after years of gridlock.

However, even the cursory examination of the process reveals that all this is not entirely true. It is planned that Montenegro will close four chapters of the Acquis by the end of 2024 – chapters 7, 10, 20 and 31. All these chapters, are, however, responsibility of ministries headed by the ministers from minority Albanian and Bosniak parties. For chapters 7, 10 and 20 – Deputy Prime Minister of Economic Policy and Minister of Economic Development Nik Gjeloshaj is in charge, from Albanian Forum. Chapter 31 is the domain of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ervin Ibrahimovic, from Bosniak Party.

Albanian and Bosniak leaders in Montenegro have traditionally been highly patriotic, one of the staunchest supporters of restoration of Montenegro’s statehood and its accession to NATO. These leaders have been, in our opinion rightfully, sharply criticized for their decision to enter into coalition that included pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties. However, their successes in EU integration process, measured by quick closure of the Acquis chapters in their competence, are the natural extension of their long-standing support of European and (before) Euro-Atlantic integration of Montenegro.

Ibrahimovic’s presence at the commemoration ceremony for victims (Croat prisoners of war) of Morinj Internment Camp can also be understood as an attempt to mend the ties with Croatia, frayed by the adoption (upon request of pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties) of controversial Resolution on Jasenovac Concentration Camp in Montenegrin Parliament. Ibrahimovic’s gesture stands in sharp contrast with the decision of pro-Serbian Minister of Defence, Krapovic (from the Europe Now/The Democrats coalition) not to attend the ceremony.

All this paints a pretty bleak picture for Montenegro’s EU accession. For all the pompous announcements, so far only the minority parties in ruling Montenegrin coalition have results to show, when it comes to closing the Acquis chapters. The rest either openly sabotages the process (on Vucic/Putin’s orders) or is unwilling to stop those who do sabotage. As mentioned before – the attempt to paint the integration process in purely technical terms (implementing reforms, closing chapters etc) is not accurate. The decision whether Montenegro will join will be highly political, and made by the member states.

It is not just Croatia that can block. Any member state can. Indications are, respectable number of member states are highly uncomfortable with the political processes in Montenegro. They are worried that admitting Montenegro will mean admitting a Serbian proxy into the EU – which in turn means admitting a Russian proxy. Countries that might be “next in line” of possible Russian attack if Ukraine falls will not stand for that. To put it simply – they don’t want another Hungary or (to a lesser degree) Slovakia doing Putin’s bidding in Brussels.

Serbia and Russia are, naturally, working overtime to make Montenegro as pro-Serbian and pro-Russian as possible, so that its EU accession possibility further diminishes. If not by increasing political control over Montenegro (using devices such as Law on Foreign Agents and/or Law on Citizenship) then simply by destabilizing it. Their propagandists within Montenegro are already threatening with civil war if pro-European parties assume power in Podgorica, after the local elections they won. Serbian Orthodox Church stands, as always, ready to provide logistical and propaganda support. Montenegro’s security sector, thoroughly riddled with Russian and Serbian agents, is probably not strong enough to respond to such threats.

Therefore, wherever the optimism about Montenegro’s EU accession prospects is coming from – it is most probably misplaced. In reality, chances that Montenegro will join, though still real, are smaller than 5 years ago. The only way to increase these chances again is to start making a political “cordon sanitaire” around pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties.

(https://x.com/MiljanVesovic)