By Miljan Vešović
There is a famous American proverb that says: "At the end of the road, there is always a mirror".
As things stand now, there is a high probability that Montenegro will quickly get a new government and a parliamentary majority whose key constituent will be the anti-Montenegrin and anti-Western, pro-Serbian and pro-Russian coalition "For the Future of Montenegro" (former Democratic Front).
It has also been announced that the census will be conducted starting on November 1st. Apparently, the census will be conducted without any domestic or international control. Citizens are exposed to the campaign and pressure of pro-Serbian political forces and the Serbian Orthodox Church to declare themselves as Serbs and believers of the SOC. It is suspected that the true purpose of the census is "ethnic engineering" in Montenegro, as a prelude to the annulment of the civil character of the state.
If these two political projects (the entry of pro-Serbian and pro-Russian political parties into the Government and the enforcement of the census) are realized, Montenegro will find itself at the end of the road that began with the "litije" pro-Serbian protests and the elections on August 30th, 2020. That road leads away from European and Euro-Atlantic values and closer to turning our country into a "Republika Srpska on the Sea".
The key factor that contributed to such developments is the malign Serbian and Russian influence and the hybrid war that, first from Belgrade and later from Moscow, has been waged against Montenegro practically without interruption since the restoration of statehood in 2006. A large number of journalists, members of academia and think-tank community have already dealt in detail with these phenomena.
It is indisputable that mistakes of our allies and partners in their policies towards Western Balkans also contributed to this situation. Most of all, these mistakes concern the slowing down the process of the European integration of the region, as well as the policy of appeasement by American and European officials towards the Vučić regime in Serbia. There was also a lot of talk about these topics.
However, there was very little, if any, objective and constructively critical analysis of the actions of civic and pro-Western political forces in Montenegro in this period. Perhaps it is time for the civic – oriented actors in Montenegro to "look in the mirror" and try to learn from past mistakes.
Almost all pro-Western political and social forces in Montenegro enthusiastically supported the adoption of the Law on Freedom of Religion at the end of 2019. The author of these lines supported it equally enthusiastically. We all made a mistake.
The content of the Law itself was not a problem. The need for its adoption was also not problematic. The time when it was done, however, was. It was not recognized that this law had the potential to mobilize anti-Western forces in Montenegro under the leadership of the Serbian Orthodox Church and at the same time alienate a part of pro-Western voters who are also Orthodox believers. Consequently, such kind of political projects are done immediately after the elections are won, and not half a year before they are held.
Failure to recognize the impact of the adoption of that Law, both on the internal politics in Montenegro and on our relations with international partners, led to another mistake. Namely, the adoption of the Law was not preceded by serious internal and external preparation. There was no preparation of the kind that preceded the referendum on independence and membership in NATO, and which was crucial for both of these projects to succeed. In the case of the Law on Freedom of Religion, it was not adequately explained to voters why this was being done.
The necessity to carry out a project that had the potential to destabilize Montenegro was also not sufficiently well explained to our allies and partners. It was precisely because of this destabilizing potential that the support for that project was absent.
This is especially bearing in mind that pro – independence forces in Montenegro, from the arrival of Aleksandar Vučić to power in 2012 and almost until the actualization of the issue of church property in Montenegro in 2019, was not agile enough in warning of the danger that never stopped threatening from Serbia. Nor in explaining that danger to Western partners. On the contrary, in the period 2012-2016. there was a some sort of tactical alliance between the pro-Western political parties in Montenegro and the Vučić regime. During this period, our country "turned a blind eye" to the infiltration of Serbian nationalists (and the security services) into the Montenegrin media and cultural space.
So, it is true - the Western allies "fell asleep at the wheel" and did not recognize Serbia's true intentions. However, Montenegro and its pro-European and Euro-Atlantic political forces were unfortunately sleeping as well.
In addition to the pro-European and pro-NATO orientation, the key reason why civic political forces in Montenegro, until 2020, could always count on (more or less publicly expressed) support from the West is the constructive role of those forces as a factor of stability in the country and the region. The moment when the perception was created that these political forces are no longer a factor of stability, support became absent or significantly reduced.
After the defeat in the 2020 elections, some members of the civic forces in Montenegro started with pronounced media and other criticism of the policy of Western countries towards the Western Balkans and Montenegro. Both Western policies and individuals - ambassadors of individual NATO and EU member states in Montenegro - have been the target of criticism. It has already been explained that there are reasons for criticism. However, there are also problems.
First of all, Montenegro needs the West much more than the West needs Montenegro. It is a political reality, determined by the size of Montenegro, its political, military and economic strength and its position in the international community. Therefore, the pro-Western political forces in Montenegro, regardless of whether it is in power or in the opposition, should make a constant effort to remind Western countries of the importance of Montenegro. Also, to make moves that will show that these political forces are the West's most preferred partner.
Unfortunately, many such chances were missed in previous years. One of these was the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2021, which caused a wave of refugees from that country. The then pro-Serbian Government led by Zdravko Krivokapić did not accept the relocation of Afghan refugees to Montenegro. This despite the fact that Montenegro participated in ISAF/Resolute Support missions in Afghanistan for more than 10 years. The Afghan situation was an opportunity to put pressure on the Government by pro-Western opposition to accept at least a small number of refugees. That would have sent a clear signal which forces in Montenegro are truly Euro-Atlantic. There was no such pressure.
A similar opportunity is emerging now, after the terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel. Regardless of personal opinions about the broader context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the current situation provides an opportunity for civic forces in Montenegro to clearly and publicly support the position of our Western allies. That position is based on, on the one hand, a strong affirmation of Israel's right to self-defense and the need to destroy terrorist organizations. On the other hand, it is about equally clear support for humanitarian efforts in the Gaza Strip and emphasizing the need for Israeli military operations to be in accordance with international humanitarian law. For now, there have been no clear public statements of this kind.
Concerning the economy, not enough has been done to attract investment from NATO and EU members to Montenegro. It is clear that part of the problem lies in the lack of interest of the private sector in Western countries in investing in our country. However, this is precisely why it was necessary to make a greater effort to increase that interest. There were opportunities to do so, but a lot of them were missed.
What is also missing is "moral clarity" and a firm belief that Euro-Atlantic and European values are something real, good and worth fighting for. This is especially considering that Montenegro, from the moment it became a member of NATO, is part of the West. Therefore, it has not come close to the West, it is not a bridge between the East and the West, but a part of the West. And thus, the forces that were most responsible for Montenegro becoming part of the West should act accordingly.
Instead, Montenegro is often seen as a country that is stuck in the conflict between the "great powers", and a kind of value and moral equivalence is implied between these "great powers". Namely, they are perceived as states that "fight for their interests and trample smaller nations under foot." Not. This is no longer the era of Tito, Nehru and Nasser, and Montenegro is no longer part of SFRY and the Non-Aligned Movement. Montenegro is now part of the "great power", which is called NATO and which is the largest and most powerful alliance of free and democratic countries in history. The revisionist great powers, which seek to destroy or fundamentally alter the rules-based world order, are our rivals.
What creates the biggest problems to these rivals is when the trans-Atlantic community is firmly united. That happens when all allies contribute and fulfill their obligations. Therefore, the pro-Western forces in Montenegro should continue to be the biggest spokesmen for the bigger defense spending and the largest possible contribution of our country within NATO. And not in order to "meet the standard" or "tick the box" of participation in the Alliance's missions and operations, but to behave as it is realistically necessary, and as is expected from an ally that is on the "first line of fire" of malign influence from Russia and Serbia.
Moreover, European and Euro-Atlantic values such as freedom, democracy, market economy, fight against corruption or human rights are often approached with cynicism in Montenegro. Unfortunately, also by members of the civic, pro-Western forces. These forces in Montenegro cannot afford that cynicism. The reality is this - we are not the USA, Great Britain or France. We do not have their institutional or democratic tradition. It's not our fault, it's our history. Those countries can afford that individuals in them understand Euro-Atlantic values the way that Nigel Farage, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Marine Le Pen do.
Montenegro and its pro – independence forces cannot afford that. Precisely because Montenegro, the Montenegrin nation, language, church, society and culture are "in the line of fire". And without a pro-Western orientation, the independence of Montenegro loses its appeal dramatically. Firm belief in European and Euro-Atlantic values and the desire to take Montenegro to a world where these values are valid were the keys to the referendum victory. Now that steadfast faith is more important than ever.
Another shortcoming of the criticism leveled at the West for its policy towards the Western Balkans is the lack of constructiveness. It is not enough to say "what is wrong". It is necessary to propose an alternative approach. That is also largely absent, even when it can be very successful. A good example can be the "Open Balkans" initiative. Justified criticism of that initiative, which came from Montenegro and the region, was always accompanied by an alternative proposal - to strengthen the Berlin process. As things stand now, interest in the "Open Balkans" initiative in the West has pretty much died down. In addition, the official who was one of the biggest regional spokesmen for that project, Albanian Prime Minister Rama, publicly expressed skepticism and supported the Berlin process a few months ago.
This example can be a recipe for further foreign policy activity of Western oriented forces in Montenegro. And the way to restore the West's trust in those forces. We talk here about a firm belief in Euro-Atlantic values, a constant desire to do as much as possible to affirm them and support our allies at every possible opportunity, bilaterally and multilaterally, combined with a constructive approach that does not shy away from calling out mistakes, but always accompanies it by offering solutions.
It is possible that, if it uses this approach, the civic, pro-Western forces in Montenegro will be able to look in the mirror from the beginning of this article and be satisfied with what they see. There is also hope that, in this way, it will be possible to contribute to Montenegro, in the mid or long term, being able to return from the wrong path it took on August 30, 2020.
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