The West’s Defeat in Montenegro

By Miljan Vešović

The parliamentary majority in Montenegro elected Andrija Mandić, the leader of the pro-Serbian and pro-Russian party "For the Future of Montenegro" as the Speaker of the Parliament of Montenegro on October 30th. Not long after that, with the support of the aforementioned pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties, the new Government of Montenegro headed by Milojko Spajić was elected.

By his own admission, the new President of the Parliament of Montenegro has dual (Montenegrin and Serbian) citizenship. In accordance with the current regulations in Montenegro, this is illegal.

Mandić was also convicted in the first instance for attempted coup d'état and terrorist activities on the day of the parliamentary elections in Montenegro, October 16th, 2016. In the same trial, operatives of the Russian military intelligence service GRU, Russian citizens Shishmakov and Popov were also convicted as organizers of the conspiracy. According to the indictment, which was confirmed in court on that occasion, the goal of the conspirators was that on Election Day, the terrorist group would take control of Montenegrin institutions and assassinate the then Prime Minister of Montenegro, Milo Đukanović. This is so that the pro-Russian forces (of which Mandic is then, as now, the leader) would take over power and, at acting on behalf of Russia, prevent Montenegro from joining NATO.

After he was sentenced to 5 years in prison at first instance, Mandic, along with other defendants, appealed to the Court of Appeal. Meanwhile, on August 30, 2020, pro-Western parties lost the elections in Montenegro. The new parliamentary majority consisted of a three-member pro-Serbian coalition. Immediately after the formation of the new government, the then Minister of Justice Leposavic, otherwise known as a denier of the genocide in Srebrenica, began to exert public pressure on the Court of Appeal to overturn the first-instance conviction. The Court of Appeal did just that.

Not long after the announcement that the case was being returned to the first instance court for a new decision, the media reported that the Special State Prosecutor's Office (Special State Prosecutor deals with all cases related to organized crime) filed criminal charges against several persons for money laundering on behalf of Russian businessmen in Montenegro. Among the accused was the husband of one of the members of the court panel that overturned the verdict against Mandić, as well as the operatives of the GRU, for the attempted coup d'état.

We leave it to the readers to decide whether this is all a coincidence or not.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called the new Speaker of the Parliament of Montenegro Mandić a "real hero". Mandic also has only words of praise for Putin. For example, he once asserted that "the majority of Montenegro perceives Putin as their president."

As for NATO, Mandic has the following opinion about this alliance: "NATO is brute force, an opponent of freedom. NATO continued with the policy of terror and force in other countries as well, but its time is clearly running out. Opposite NATO now stands the mighty Russia, which has once again become the hope of humanity and the defender of the values of the circle of civilization to which the Orthodox people belong."

Just before the parliamentary elections, after which the current ruling majority was formed, Mandic declared that "if he comes to power, Montenegro will first leave NATO and then withdraw the recognition of Kosovo."

In addition to Mandić's party "For the Future of Montenegro", the ruling majority is comprised of three others. "For the future of Montenegro" currently has no ministers in the Government, but will be represented at the level of deputy ministers (state secretaries). Also, it is planned that after a year the Government will be reconstructed, so that members of Mandić's party will also enter it, at ministerial level.

Members of the other parties that formed the government, as well as the new Prime Minister Spajić, have repeatedly expressed their pro-European and pro-NATO orientation and pledged to follow the European and Euro-Atlantic path that the country has followed since the restoration of statehood. Considering, however, who their coalition partner is, it is not easy to believe those promises.

Spajić began his political activism by lobbying for the undoubtedly pro-Russian Serbian Orthodox Church. After being the Minister of Finance in the Government of Montenegro, and then the leader of the currently largest party, the "Europe Now" Movement, he tried to move on from his pro-Serbian beginnings and position himself as a modern pro-Western politician, who emphasizes economic development. The pro-Serbian parties in Montenegro, as well as the intelligence and media apparatus of the Vučić regime in Serbia, did not forgive him. By constructing several political scandals, they first prevented him from being a presidential candidate, and then tried to weaken his position after the parliamentary elections in June 2023.

The pressure of Serbia (and through it also Russia) was most felt in the process of forming the government and the new parliamentary majority after the elections. Spajić's original idea was to exclude pro-Russian parties from the negotiations and form a government of moderate pro-Serb and national minority parties. However, he succumbed to pressure organized from Belgrade and included Mandić and his group in the ruling majority.

There is a high probability that the key instrument of Serbian pressure was the current (pro-Serbian) president of Montenegro, Milatović. Milatović and Spajić come from the same political party, "Europe Now". The media have repeatedly reasoned that it was the current president who influenced several MPs of that party to reject Spajić's proposal that the government and the ruling majority be formed without pro-Russian elements. With that, Milatović denied Spajić the majority for that proposal.

By the way, Milatović's national security advisor, Vukšić, is also known (while he was a corporate lawyer) for his connections with members of the Russian business community. After pro-Serbian parties came to power in August 2020, Vukšić was appointed Head of the Montenegrin intelligence service ANB. There were several media reports that have asserted that, during Vukšić's mandate, the ANB was thoroughly infiltrated by agents of the Russian and Serbian intelligence services, and therefore became a security problem for NATO.

We will again leave it to the readers to decide whether all this is a coincidence or not.

On the other hand, there were clear messages from the West that, according to President Biden's special envoy for the Western Balkans Escobar, "the USA was very clear that they want the government to be comprised exclusively of parties focused on European integration and dedicated to NATO, which share the American position regarding Russia". It is obvious that this message was ignored and that the ruling majority judged that the views of Belgrade, the Serbian Orthodox Church and indirectly Moscow were smore important, and that Prime Minister Spajić, at least for the time being, failed to resist the anti-Western pressure he was faced with.

This is therefore the current situation in Montenegro: the posts of Speaker of Parliament, several deputy ministers in the Government and the closest advisers to the President of Montenegro are held by anti-Western, anti-NATO and pro-Russian officials. This poses two major security problems to Montenegro's Western allies and partners.

In the short term, the biggest problem will be the security of NATO classified information, which Montenegro, like all allies, has access to. Mandić, as Speaker of the Parliament, is also a member of the supreme security institution in the country, the institution that commands the Armed Forces of Montenegro - the Security and Defense Council. That body makes decisions unanimously, which means that there is a high probability that Moscow, through Mandic, will be able to block any participation of Montenegro in NATO missions and operations.

In addition, Mandić, "Putin's hero", convicted in the first instance for attempted terrorism at the behest of the GRU, as a member of the Security and Defense Council, automatically receives access to highest-level classified information "Top Secret". All the diplomatic cables containing reports from various NATO committee meetings, which our diplomatic and military missions to NATO routinely sends (as they should, it is their job), will arrive at Mandić's desk. This further means that there is a high probability that the details of, for example, NATO military and intelligence assessments of the position and capacity of Ukrainian and Russian forces, will end up at the Russian Embassy in Podgorica on the same day.

In the long term, the formal inclusion of pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties in the Government and the parliamentary majority is another step towards enacting the scenario of the collapse of Montenegrin statehood, putting Montenegro under the political, security and ideological control of Serbia and Russia and destabilizing the region. The previous three and a half years, when the two pro-Serbian governments practically left Montenegro at the mercy of operatives and agents of influence of the Russian and Serbian security services, created fertile ground for this scenario.

The first next step in that plan is to falsify the results of the population census, in order to falsely claim that most of the Montenegrin population are ethnic Serbs. Based on these fake results, the next step is to change the constitutional order of Montenegro, which will no longer be a civic state, but a state divided along ethnic lines, like Bosnia and Herzegovina. After that, the federalization of Montenegro along ethnic lines can be implemented. When that is over, it is time to abolish the statehood of Montenegro and unify it with Serbia. Of course, that also means withdrawal from NATO (the member state will no longer exist) and the "de-recognition" of Kosovo.  These are the political goals of the new Speaker of the Parliament of Montenegro.

Or, if there is no majority for this total annulment of Montenegro’s statehood, Belgrade and Moscow can try terrorist attacks and declarations of independence of municipalities with a majority Serbian population. Just like Russia did in Donbass and Serbia tried to do in Northern Kosovo.

Of course, it takes years to enact this worst-case scenario. However, that scenario is much more possible than the pro-Western forces in Montenegro, or the Western allies themselves, think. Let's remember - in 1996, few people in Montenegro and outside it thought that our country would be able to restore statehood. Just 10 years later, it happened. This fact alone indicates that the possibility of the reverse process - returning Montenegro to some kind of formal or de facto Union with Serbia - also exists.

It is particularly troublesome that Montenegro, unlike, for example, Kosovo, whose security apparatus is compact, firmly pro-Western and dedicated to the defense of the country's national interests, no longer has the security capacity to oppose such attempts. And it is impossible to ask for NATO protection through the activation of Articles 4 and/or 5 of the Washington Treaty.  The highest officials of Montenegro, whose responsibility is to activate Articles 4 and/or 5, are the very people think NATO is “an opponent of freedom”.

The fact that these bleak scenarios are being considered at all, that NATO has to worry about whether its classified data are safe from the Speaker of the Parliament of one of the allies or not, and especially the fact that the ruling majority in Montenegro is apparently ignoring very clear warnings from the Western allies, indicates that the policy of the West (EU and USA) in the last few years towards Montenegro and the Western Balkans has failed. And it failed because it was based on appeasing Serbia.

Appeasing Serbia turned out to be counter-productive. For the same reason that being soft on China in the 1990s, being soft on Russia (the famous "Reset") at the end of the first decade of the 21st century, and lifting sanctions to Iran in order to conclude a nuclear agreement proved to be counter-productive. In all these cases, it turns out that it is delusional to think that authoritarian, deeply anti-Western countries whose interests do not coincide with those of the US and the West will suddenly become friendly countries if economic cooperation is established with them, and their authoritarian practices are tolerated.

Both “realpolitik” and the complete incompatibility of societies based on freedom and those based on fear and obedience, determine that the West cannot be friends with the Communist Party of China, the KGB and the Council of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, nor do the mentioned entities want friendship or even peaceful coexistence with the West.

The same situation is with Vučić's Serbia. Thinking in terms of “realpolitik” Serbia considers Montenegro, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and a part of Croatia to be either territories that historically belong to it, or its sphere of interest. NATO (membership of Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia, the presence of KFOR in Kosovo and the EU mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina) is perceived by Serbian nationalists (to which Vučić, unequivocally, belongs) as the main obstacle to that being the case. That is why the goal of Serbian policy is to reduce the presence and influence of NATO as much as possible. Naturally, Moscow and Beijing share that goal.

Thinking in terms of values, the greater presence of the West in the Balkans also means a constant reminder to the citizens of Serbia of what a life based on freedom, democracy, a free market and relative economic prosperity looks like. For an authoritarian regime, such reminders are deeply disturbing.

Of course, the Vučić regime is aware that NATO cannot be defeated militarily. However, they want to achieve the reduction of Western influence through the strengthening of alliances with Russia and China on the one hand, and an attempt to present Vučić to the West as a "factor of stability", to whom concessions should be made in order to make Serbia cooperative, on the other.

The example of his recent visit to China also shows how Vučić "repaid" the West for concessions and turning a blind eye to the EU and USA's hybrid operations that Serbia is conducting in Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. He was there at the summit of the "Belt and Road" initiative. He arrived to sign a free trade agreement with China. He also announced that Serbia is considering transferring part of its foreign exchange reserves from the US Dollar to the Chinese Yuan. With this, Vučić directly supports the Russian-Chinese financial attack on the USA through an attempt to reduce the dominant share of the US Dollar in the world's foreign currency reserves and global financial transactions.

Therefore, it can be concluded that the time has long come for a change of course in the policy of the West towards the Western Balkans, including Montenegro. As for Montenegro, the change can be implemented through the use of all channels (from public, via “behind closed door” diplomacy to intelligence ones) to hammer home the message that pro-Russian parties in power cannot be partners of the USA, EU, UK and NATO. Also, there are mechanisms to sanction agents of malign Russian influence (as was done with Vulin or Dodik) - it might be advisable to use those mechanisms. Especially since these agents of Russian influence are often corrupt or connected to organized criminal groups. For example, one of the key officials of pro-Serbian and pro-Russian Mandić's party "For the Future of Montenegro", the mayor of Budva Milo Božović, is currently in custody because he is suspected of running a narcotics-trafficking ring.

As for the Western Balkans in general, the recommendation has been mentioned many times - less carrots and more stick towards Vučić's Serbia. It is especially crucial to dissuade Vučić from interfering in the internal affairs of NATO members such as Montenegro. The "stick" would have to "hit harder" in such situations - and so far, unfortunately, it has not hit hard enough.

Of course, it may not be unjustified for the decision-makers in the EU, USA and UK to ask themselves (especially in the USA, which is on the other side of the Atlantic) why they should care about Montenegro and what interests they might have there. However, the fight against malign Serbian and Russian influence in Montenegro and the region is in the interest of the West. For many reasons.

First, by moving Montenegro away from NATO and its entry into the pro-Serbian (which automatically means pro-Russian and pro-Chinese) orbit, Russia and China are given the opportunity to have access to the Adriatic Sea, through the Port of Bar. Russia has already once asked Montenegro to allow the Russian Navy access to that port. At the time, the pro-Western government in Montenegro refused it. However, it is very likely that Russia and China will try again in the near future, because the political climate in Montenegro is now favorable. There have already been speculations in the media that some Serbian companies are interested in buying an ownership stake in the Port of Bar. Both Moscow and Beijing would undoubtedly rush to reap the benefits of Vučić's control over that port. With that, Russia and China would gain a good platform for threatening the interests of the EU, NATO and the US in the entire Mediterranean, as well as in North Africa and the Middle East.

Second, the definitive fall of Montenegro under Serbian-Russian-Chinese control would represent a severe blow to the prestige of the EU and the USA all over the world. The very fact that politicians can afford to completely ignore the clear recommendations of the West and do the exact opposite shows that this prestige in the Western Balkans is seriously shaken. If the Western countries prove unable to stop Vučić's Serbia (which is a relatively small country), it is not difficult to guess what conclusion Putin, Xi, Khamenei or Kim Jong Un will draw from it. The conclusion will be that the West is not ready to demonstrate strength, which is a signal to start even stronger attacks on American and European interests in other regions of the world.

For now, it is still not too late to demonstrate strength and avoid the worst – case scenario. Moreover, the means that need to be used are not military interventions, nor these means involve sending hundreds of billions of dollars from the pockets of American and European taxpayers. It will take years to repair the negative consequences that the malign Serbian-Russian influence left on Montenegro and the region. However, a combination of diplomatic, economic and intelligence pressure can, to begin with, prevent further deterioration of the situation. Otherwise, all bets are definitely off, and even the worst – new wars in Western Balkans, can happen.