Happy New Year?

 By Miljan Vešović

As 2023 draws to a close and people around the world are beginning preparations to celebrate the “happiest season of all”, the state of international affairs is very bleak.

Ukraine is stuck. The long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive was executed in summer/fall 2023, but it didn’t achieve what it set out to achieve. The Ukrainian forces are now on the defensive, while the Russians have renewed the pressure in both Eastern and Southern Ukraine.

Moreover, it is increasingly evident that it is nigh impossible for Ukraine to survive, let alone win the war, without foreign aid. Aid packages, however, are stuck – in both US and EU.  In US, Republicans in Congress are conditioning the military aid for Ukraine and Israel with passage of strict policies aimed at reducing migration, especially illegal one across the US-Mexico border. In EU, where decision to grant military aid to third countries has to be consensual, pro-Russian Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, has been successfully blocking the sending of new aid for the last three months.

Both US Congress and relevant EU bodies will, as things stand now, try to reach decision on aid at the very beginning of 2024. It is, however, uncertain, whether either EU or US aid will be granted. The biggest problem is, however, the following – even if both aid packages are granted, what happens if Ukraine exhausts the additional aid and the war is still a stalemate. It is very unlikely that either European or American taxpayers will tolerate more military spending on Ukraine – even though majorities still do, support for the aid has been plummeting and is considerably lower than in 2022.

Ukraine has become a victim of its own success. It exceeded all expectations - Ukrainian army conducted both effective and heroic defense against Russian initial onslaught, and then mounted successful counterattacks and managed to retake parts of Russian-occupied territories. However, as said above, the last, big, counter – offensive was not a success.

On the other hand, Russia switched its economy to war footing and successfully prepared itself to wage long war of attrition. Putin doesn’t care whether he wins in 5 months or 5 years, as long as he wins.

Ukraine and its Western allies now lack several things – a clear plan to defeat Russia conventionally on the battlefield; another plan to make Ukrainian military and economy self – sustainable in case the current stalemate is prolonged and copious amounts of foreign aid stop being available and an answer to question what happens if Russia indeed faces defeat and decides to use tactical nukes to reverse the course of battle.

On the other hand, any sort of negotiated peace with Russia would require significant concessions to Putin and, more importantly, legitimization of land grabs in Europe by military means. That sort of peace would shatter the rules-based order in Europe. This is why, for Ukraine and the West, all currently available options are bad.

The only democratic country in the Middle East, Israel, has been much more successful in its counter – offensive against Hamas terrorists who committed the largest murder of Jews in one day since the Holocaust. Even though operations are still ongoing, available information suggest that the IDF has managed to degrade and destroy a significant part of Hamas terrorist networks. It is increasingly clear that the main goal of Israeli operation – to destroy Hamas in its current form, is within reach.

However, Israel has been losing the information battle. Even its staunchest allies, such as US, have been increasingly less tolerant to “collateral damage” – death and suffering of Palestinian civilians in Gaza Strip. The propagandistic narratives about “genocide” in Palestine, pushed by pro-Palestinian activists around the world, and generously helped by Iranian and Russian intelligence networks and information warriors, have found fertile ground in Western countries, especially among the youth and left wing.

Israelis always complain that the world always has compassion and understanding for Jews when they are murdered, but never for Israeli actions to prevent further atrocities. That might be right. However, it seems probable that Israel will soon be forced to accept this reality – and either wind down its operations in Gaza, or face stifling isolation in the Middle East and beyond.

Continued bloodshed in Gaza also makes the prospect of achieving a key strategic goal for Israel – thawing of relations with Saudi Arabia in order to counterbalance Iran – more remote by the day. This presents a headache for the US as well – as good relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia are necessary prerequisite to reduce not just Iranian, but also Russian (and in the future Chinese) influence in one of the most strategically important regions on Earth.

On the other hand, failing to at least significantly degrade Hamas would constitute a defeat for Israel. That defeat would have grave consequences – emboldened terror groups and Iranian proxies in the region. In that scenario, security situation in Israel may deteriorate even further and October 7th might become the norm, not an exception. Just like in Ukraine, Israel and its allies are forced to choose the “least bad” option.

2024 will also be the year of elections – the ones in USA, UK, EU (Parliament), Russia and India being the most important. In democratic countries, the anti – establishment populism is on the rise everywhere, with both left- and right-wing populists rejecting the current domestic and foreign policy norms.

Naturally, not all of it is negative – there are numerous examples (antisemitism in France, UK and on college campuses in the US, sluggish economic recovery after COVID-19 pandemic, uncontrolled migration, advent of absurd “anti-systemic” and conspiracy theories and ideologies such as “wokeism”, “CRT” or “great replacement”) that show that parts of system are broken and in need of radical overhaul. However, there is an alarming trend that voters increasingly choose outlandishly frightening political options, or leaders whose ignorance is plainly obvious, only because they are “anti – establishment”.

These politicians, from both sides of political spectrum, are increasingly wiling to endanger the most – important source of world’s stability – the Euro-Atlantic alliance. Of course – most of them are not on Putin’s and/or Xi’s payroll. However, they unwittingly do their bidding – destabilization of NATO and its member states, erosion of trust in democratic institutions and trans – Atlantic quarrels are always gifts to revisionist powers and authoritarian leaders.

This conflagration of international crises and elections that increase the probability of anti-systemic radicals taking power in largest NATO allies will pose a unique set of challenges for democratic world in 2024. “The center” will be under threat more than ever – next year will tell whether it will survive or it “cannot hold, and mere anarchy is loosed upon the world” – as Yates predicted in his famous poem.