The End of the War?

 For Antena M by: Miljan Vešović

After approximately hundred days since Israel Defense Forces started ground operation against terrorist organization Hamas in Gaza Strip, it is time to draw some conclusions.

First – Israel’s military success. Israeli forces managed to overrun most of Gaza Strip and drive Hamas out of all major cities except Rafah, on the border with Egypt. According to announcements from Israeli PM Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials, the assault on Rafah is imminent and may be the last major battle of the war. If IDF takes Rafah, it would mean that all Gaza Strip is under Israeli military control.

Throughout the operation, Israeli forces managed to inflict heavy casualties on the enemy while reducing their own – a significant feat for (mostly) urban warfare. According to Israeli data, most of original Hamas’ fighters are currently either killed in action, wounded or captured. US data are a little bit more conservative – but they still talk of 20-30% of Hamas’ fighters killed and more than 10000 wounded.

Having in mind that most military experts predicted that IDF would need much more time to take major urban centers in Gaza Strip and that number of Israeli casualties would be much higher, it is safe to say that, in the military sense, IDF did the job much better than expected.

Politically, however, situation is much more complicate. The cost for Israel’s military success was the death of an extremely large number of Palestinian civilians, including women and children. This tragedy caused the significant diminishment of Israeli standing with its allies and around the world. The public pressure on Israel to halt the planned attack on Rafah and opt for a lasting ceasefire is growing. For example, French President, German and UK Foreign Ministers called for a ceasefire. EU Commissioner for Foreign and Security Policy, Borell, went even further – he requested the allies to consider stopping arms exports to Israel unless it stops the war.

US President Biden called the Israeli military intervention “over the top”. US media reported that, privately, Biden was much harsher and especially critical of Netanyahu. Biden Administration issued sanctions against Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Pentagon officials also asked their counterparts in Israel not to conduct offensive operations in Rafah unless they have a robust plan in place to protect civilians from harm. The problem is, no one knows how it is possible – from Rafah, the only place Palestinian refugees can go is Egypt, which continues to keep its borders with Gaza Strip closed.

At the end of last year, South Africa filed a motion with the International Criminal Court arguing that Israel was conducting genocide against Gazans and asking the Court to order Israel to suspend its military operations in the Gaza Strip. The Court did not grant that request, however it ordered Israel to take measures to prevent acts of genocide, to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza and to take more measures to protect Palestinians.

After the Court’s ruling, both Israel and South Africa claimed victory – Israel pointed to a fact that the Court did not order it to stop fighting and South Africa interpreted the verdict to mean that Israeli actions are getting dangerously close to genocidal.  

All these examples point to the following – even though Hamas has been destroyed on the battlefield, Palestinians managed to score a propaganda victory. The world’s attention shifted from terrorist attacks on Israel to suffering of Palestinian civilians, with most of international community, at least publicly, advocating for ceasefire which will also mean, at least temporarily, a physical survival of Hamas in parts of Gaza Strip (Rafah). That would mean that Israel failed to achieve it main stated objective – to drive the Hamas out of Gaza completely and destroy its terror infrastructure in the Strip.

The fact that the international community, including most of the Western allies, even after the gruesome deaths of more than thousand of Israeli civilians on October 7th 2023, is willing to “live with it”, indicated a significant shift in thinking that is unfavorable for Israel and its government.

The whole situation has hurt Netanyahu politically a lot as well. First of all, the attack on October 7th happened under his watch. Secondly, it is claimed a lot that one of the reasons why Israeli’s security services, arguably the best in the world, missed such big a threat was the inclusion of incompetent ministers from extremist parties in the Government and subsequent month-long standoff between Netanyahu and Israeli judiciary over constitutional reforms that brought the country to the brink of civil unrest. Thirdly, Netanyahu’s tactics to cut deals with Hamas in order to weaken Palestinian authority on the West Bank and thus invalidate the two-state solution backfired spectacularly on and after October 7th.

Moreover, Israeli economy suffered during the war – for the first time in history, Israel’s credit rating was downgraded last week.  Last but not least, failure to save considerable number of hostages taken by Hamas during the terrorist attacks brought further political pressure to Netanyahu’s government.

All these are reasons why even the excellent performance of IDF in Gaza does not translate into increase of Netanyahu’s approval rating. According to the opinion polls, if the election in Israel were held today, Netanyahu would lose in a landslide.

The question now is – what next? Even with the growing international pressure, the decision to stop fighting and leave Hamas be in Rafah is definitely detrimental to the security of Israel and would probably be the final nail in Netanyahu’s political coffin. There is no appetite for ceasefire in Israel, even among the oppositions – the wounds of October 7th are still fresh and overwhelming majority of electorate wants Hamas terrorists finished off.

International sanctions against Israel as a punishment for suffering of civilians in Gaza and incentive to accept ceasefire are also not very probable. Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East, has been a reliable ally for decades, is a significant economic partner for both US and European countries and, most importantly, this time was attacked first by a ruthless, bloodthirsty terrorist organization. It would be extremely hard for any US or European states(wo)man to decisively turn against Israel and face accusations of antisemitism and siding with the terrorists.

It is also very important to mention that there is definitely no love lost between Palestinians, especially Hamas in Gaza, and leading Arab states such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Their decision not to accept Palestinian refugees (made, no doubt, having in mind the negative experience of Jordan and Lebanon with Palestinian political and military organizations in the past) is a clear indicator of that. Even though publicly they have to be on the side of Palestinians and tough against Israel, privately they are probably praying that Israel destroys Hamas in Rafah and finishes the job quickly.

That scenario would free their hand to, once the outrage over civilian deaths subsides, normalize relations with Israel (especially if Netanyahu is voted out or resigns), work towards a lasting solution concerning Palestinian statehood (with one of main impediments – Hamas, gone) and present a unified front against Iran.

Among Western allies, the thinking is a bit different. The left wing and Muslim communities at home are pressuring them to reduce the support to Israel. This is an especially sensitive issue for Biden, whose reelection might as well depend on Muslim voters in Michigan, and for the UK, whose Conservative Government is also facing the general election this year, with the Labour opposition currently leading in the opinion polls. EU also holds elections for its Parliament in 2024 – Muslim votes would be needed to hold the onslaught of the populist right wing.

Therefore, Western leaders would like to see a long ceasefire in place and final resolution of Gaza question postponed until after all the elections. And if, in the meantime, Netanyahu is replaced by a more conciliatory Israeli PM – even better.

It is improbable that Israel will play along though – it doesn’t have any compelling domestic or foreign policy reason to do so. Probably the best the international community and Palestinians can hope for is some sort of plan to evacuate civilians before the decisive battle starts. Such plans are rarely, if ever, successful one hundred percent. Thus, unfortunately, another chapter will be added to the ever – growing catalogue of human suffering, for which both Israel and Palestinian leadership share guilt.

However, there is a cause for optimism – the final defeat of Hamas, once the dust from the conflict settles, might indeed be the thing that will unblock the way towards the statehood for Palestinian Arabs and towards lasting peace and good relations between Israel and its neighbors.