A Precise Warning – Western Balkans at the Edge of Chaos

For Antena M by: Miljan Vešović

The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, made public Monday evening by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, was very precise.

“The Western Balkans probably will face an increased risk of localized interethnic violence during 2024”, says there. “Nationalistic leaders are likely to exacerbate tension for their political advantage and outside actors will reinforce and exploit ethnic differences to increase or protect their regional influence or thwart greater Balkan integration into the EU or Euro-Atlantic institutions”.

It continues with the same precision: “Clashes between Serb nationalists and Kosovar authorities have led to deaths and injuries, including injuries to NATO peacekeepers, in 2023. Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is taking provocative steps to neutralize international oversight in Bosnia and secure de facto secession for his Republika Srpska. His actions could prompt leaders of the Bosniak population to bolster their own capacity to protect their interests and possibly lead to violent conflicts that could overwhelm peacekeeping forces”.

On the other hand, the Head of Serbian Military Intelligence Agency, Major General Stojkovic, was equally precise. “Having in mind the foreign presence on the ground (meaning NATO), traditional closedness of Albanian communities, and the most serious security escalation since 2004, we (Serbia) have deployed significant intelligence assets to the area”, Stojkovic commented for Russia Today (interesting choice of media outlet).

Not to leave any doubt what the mission in Kosovo is, Stojkovic explained that “In our (Serbian) intelligence services, there is no place for people who don’t have Kosovo in their hearts and who don’t live for the day when the Serbian flag will proudly fly throughout the southern Serbian province (meaning Kosovo).

Serbian historian/nationalist ideologue, Cedomir Antic, was also very precise. “We should fight for the independence of Republika Srpska, we should fight for the change of Constitution of Montenegro (elimination of multinational state), and, if that is not possible, Republika Srpska can be created there (in Montenegro) too, with Niksic (the second largest town in Montenegro) as its capital” - Antic stated just yesterday.

Antic is not just any historian. In authoritarian, expansionistic regimes, people like Antic serve a sinister purpose – to voice the quiet part about the regime’s true intentions out loud (so that there is a plausible deniability) and to incite tensions when destabilization is on the said regime’s agenda. If you think this is too far-fetched, remember Alexander Dugin. A lot of people thought his ramblings had been a product of an unstable mind consumed by rabid nationalism and extremism – until Russia invaded Ukraine, that is.

Speaking of Niksic, the (rabidly pro-Vucic and pro-Russian) Mayor of that town, Kovacevic, last week publicly called an opposition MP, whose great-grandfather was Austrian, a “Kraut”. Too many WW2 movies, maybe? Or perhaps another attempt to incite xenophobia and ethnic tensions, in accordance with the plan described in DNI Threat Assessment? We will let the readers decide.

And speaking again of precision, Milorad Dodik has recently made some very precise statements about various topics. “This is a fight against foreigners, who want to install colonial administration” – was his comment about the current situation in Bosnia. “Arrogant liars” – was his description of the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Christian Schmidt and US Senator Chris Murphy.  “Building roads is much more important than democracy” – was his illuminating insight about how he understands politics. “Nothing ever works in Bosnia, as soon as Republika Srpska gets an opportunity it will secede” – was his plan for the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Russian regime-supported think-tanks are also very precise. “The Ukrainian crisis had added spice to the Balkan agenda, reviving “frozen conflicts” not only within the borders of the region but also beyond its perimeter. Directly dependent on the outcome of the armed confrontation in Ukraine and separately from it, a clash or, at least, an intensification of external actors in the Balkans direction seems inevitable” – says the analytical paper of Russian Institute for Systems-Strategic Analysis.

This is a good example of a self – fulfilling prophecy. Putin’s regime is doing its utmost to cause conflicts in the Western Balkans. Part of that strategy is to have its pet analysts predict the conflict, which in turn will cause panic, destabilize situation (panic means destabilization) and also serve as an implicit threat to NATO and EU that Russia and its proxies Serbia and Republika Srpska (if you don’t believe they are, ask British Foreign Secretary) have the wherewithal to set another European region on fire.

There are many more signs of the gathering storm in the Balkans. Some of them not (yet) suitable for public discourse. We chose the ones that we considered to be the most indicative. Again, we will let the readers decide whether they are important or not. Thus, we will spare the pro-Russian and pro-Serbian media in Montenegro the effort of pressing charges against Antena M. We just hope they won’t get the bright idea to press charges against U.S. Director of National Intelligence, or David Cameron.

We will, however, state something that, by now, should really have been obvious, but unfortunately is not. Western Balkans stands at the edge of the precipice. Montenegro is a part of the Western Balkans. Even though, as a NATO ally, our country is better equipped to face the regional crisis if it breaks out, the severity and complexity of security challenges cannot be ignored. Even if Montenegro itself avoids the conflict, hostilities elsewhere in the region have the potential to wreak havoc with our demographics, our society and our economy. Just like they did in the 1990s.

Therefore, our concluding message is simple, and hopefully, precise. This is much bigger than day to day politics. Much bigger than PES or DPS or any other political party that is, nominally or really, pro-European, much bigger than endless combinations to enter ruling coalitions or enactment of economic reforms. It is, indeed, much bigger than our European integration process – even though that process can be the necessary, but not the sufficient condition for our stability.

This is about the most essential function of any state – national security. What concretely should be done to preserve it is something we will deal with in our next articles. However, if Montenegro doesn’t have it, it has nothing but chaos. And the first condition to preserve national security is that well-meaning, pro-Montenegrin and pro-Western oriented people from all ethnicities, religions, from government and from opposition, start working together to preserve it. Once the storm has been weathered, we can go back to business as usual.

Whether this unity will be achieved – again, we will let the readers make their best and most precise estimate.