Vucic’s Long Game

By Miljan Vesovic

Authoritarian Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic yesterday made the “historic” address to the nation concerning Kosovo. He introduced the measures Serbia intends to take. This gives us a good opportunity to, once again, try to decode his real intentions in the region.

There are clear indicators, that the Serbian plan to militarily attack Kosovo and try to occupy the North by force has been long ready. Credible information indicated that Serbian regime intended to act upon it by end of this year/beginning of next year. The calculation was that the US would be distracted by elections and (expected) post-election chaos. Therefore, the NATO forces in Kosovo would not defend the territory with Serb population and would simply retreat to defend (if necessary) the territory with Albanian population. This would, in turn, lead to the de facto partition of Kosovo.

However, it looks increasingly likely that recent visit of CIA Director Burns to Belgrade resulted in strong warnings to Vucic that the US knows what he has been up to and that US and NATO reaction, in case of a new war in Kosovo/the Balkans, would be swift and decisive. This regardless of the possible political instability in the US after the presidential election. Therefore, Vucic changed tack.  He was visibly at pains yesterday to clarify that Serbia would never go to war in order to solve the Kosovo question. 

Vucic is banking on US disinterest in the region. He is calculating that, as long as there is no war, everything else he does, in Kosovo and elsewhere, is permissible and will be met by mild reaction from US, EU and NATO. He is also counting on his old and new friends and interest acquaintances in the West.  For example, Macron and Scholz. Macron’s France has just concluded a $3 billion worth sale of military hardware to Serbia. Scholz’s Germany is very interested in a future steady supply of lithium from Serbian mines.  Vucic also counts on Biden’s Ambassador to Belgrade, Hill, who is sometimes acting and behaving more like a random Serbian lobbyist in DC than like the person in charge to protect US’ interests in Belgrade. Vucic hopes all these people will advocate for lenient approach towards Serbia. Sad thing is – he might as well be right.

However, in order to continue Serbia’s role as the main destabilizer in the Balkans on Russia’s and China’s behalf, Vucic, and he clearly stated that today, will position Serbia as a bulwark against US and EU interests in the region. In Kosovo and elsewhere. Hence his measures towards Kosovo. He is strengthening, not dismantling the parallel institutions. He announced that Serbian prosecutors will indict Kosovar leaders/heads of agencies - that is, of course, a prelude to an international arrest warrant. He made a decision that Serbia will continue to fund all Serbian activities in the North of Kosovo (including, of course the terror networks led by Radojicic et al).  He explicitly rejected the possibility for mutual recognition of Serbia and Kosovo and membership of Kosovo in international organizations “for many decades” (his quote).

All this means two things: firstly, as said already, the continuation of destabilizing policies and secondly and more importantly, openly giving up on Serbia’s EU aspirations, which hinge on successful solution of Kosovo issue based on respect of Ohrid Agreement.

Vucic’s message to the West is therefore the following- they threatened him, and he is not strong enough to do what he really wants (attack Kosovo militarily). Yet. So Vucic, for the time being, will not do that. However, he will never fulfill the strategic goals of the US, EU and NATO in the region. He will never turn Serbia towards the EU and the West. After this, he might even accept Putin’s invitation to attend the BRICS summit in person.  He will never act constructively and respect the Ohrid Agreement to solve the Kosovo issue.  He will always destabilize the region on behalf of Russia and China and in line with Serbian nationalist goals. However, he will do it by peaceful and means of hybrid warfare, not by open warfare. For now. And he says to the West - you will be fine with it all, because you only care about the peace in the region and nothing else.

With this Vucic’s mindset, it is expected that Serbian hybrid warfare against Kosovo, Bosnia, Montenegro and North Macedonia intensifies. Watch out for possible “hybrid” trouble in Montenegro, where Serbian nationalists/pro-Russian cadres have infiltrated all branches of government and where municipalities under control of pro-Serbian politicians are openly acting as parts of Serbia - no respect for MNE flag and national anthem, organization of Serbian nationalistic rallies, visits from members of Serbian Government on a weekly basis.

Also watch out for North Macedonia, where newly installed pro-Serbian and pro-Russian Government may turn the country away from the West, which, in turn, can cause a renewed tensions and civil unrest between Macedonians and Albanians. Albanians in North Macedonia may as well consider the pro-Russian turn of the country as a direct attack on their own ethnic interests. This having in mind their strong pro-American and pro-Western orientation. This might bring the “Season 2” of the ethnic conflict resolved by the original Ohrid Agreement – the one from 2001.

And of course, watch out for Bosnia, where the possible secession of Republika Srpska is a “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the security and stability not just of that country, but of the whole Western Balkans.

Vucic is also hoping Donald Trump will win the US election. The Republican politicians and foreign policy experts are, generally, excellent at recognizing Serbia’s destabilizing role in the Western Balkans. They have traditionally advocated for acting against it. However, Vucic thinks (rightly or falsely-we will see) that the influence of one of most prominent Serbian lobbyists in Washington, Richard Grenell will prevail and that Trump will look on Serbia with a favorable eye.

If Kamala Harris wins, Vucic is banking on disinterest and continuation of Biden Administration policy towards the Western Balkans. That policy has focused on preserving peace and stability at all costs. In practice, it meant being soft on Serbia and act only when said peace is directly and obviously threatened (such as the terror attack attempt in Banjska or the already mentioned visit of the CIA Director). The fragile peace in the region still holds. However, the situation on the ground deteriorates on a daily basis and Russian and Chinese interests and positions are growing stronger. That is the end goal of Vucic’s long game.